交通供需平衡机理模型

Model of dynamic relationship between traffic supply and demand

为探究交通供给与交通需求间互馈机理,揭示两者平衡的动态关系,在定性分析交通供需互动机理的基础上,利用系统动力学原理,对两者的动态互馈过程建立微分方程组并求得平衡解,证明了平衡解的稳定性,提出交通供需的平衡条件。研究结果表明:交通供给与交通需求之间是一种相互依存、相互促进的关系,通过循环反馈过程,在一定条件下可以达到稳定平衡状态;当交通供给与交通需求相互促进作用均小于1且较为接近时,可满足供给与需求协调发展的要求。

To research each feedback relation between traffic supply and demand,this paper reveals the dynamic relationship of them.Based on qualitative mechanism analyzing of interaction relationship between traffic supply and demand,the differential equation group for dynamic process of each feedback was established utilizing system dynamics theory,and the steady equilibrium solution was also obtained,the balance conditions of traffic supply and demand were put forward.The results indicate that,traffic supply and demand are interdependent and they promote each other,through the process of feedback loop,they can realize stable equilibrium under certain conditions,it satisfies the requirement of coordinate development when the mutual accelerating roles between traffic supply and demand are less than 1.2 tabs,5 figs,9 refs.