被征地农民参加城镇企业职工基本养老保险的影响研究

Influence of Covering the Land-expropriated Peasants of Basic Endowment Insurance System on Urban Employees

运用模型模拟了不同的工资增长率、利率以及养老金年递增率下被征地农民参加城镇职工基本养老保险对城保的影响。研究发现,当工资增长率和利率差距不大,且养老金年递增率维持在一个较低的水平时,将被征地农民纳入城镇企业职工基本养老保险并不会产生巨大的资金缺口,因而其影响是中性的。但目前我国工资增长率要远远高于利率,将被征地农民纳入城镇企业职工基本养老保险将会产生较大的资金缺口,因此将被征地农民纳入到"城保"一定要量力而行,已纳入的地区需要通过增加投资渠道等方式提高养老保险基金投资回报率,减少基金缺口。

Based on actuarial model,this article estimates the balance of endowment insurance fund in the different conditions of wage growth rate,discount rate and benefit growth rate.It is concluded that if the wage growth rate is equal to the discount rate and benefit growth rate is low,cover-ing the land-expropriated peasants will result in the fund gap.But now the wage growth rate is far higher than the discount rate,so if the land-ex-propriated peasants have been covered,it will be necessary to improve the rate of return by expanding investment channel.