神舟七号转运日浅层风预报分析

Analysis on Low Level Wind Forecast of Shenzhou Ⅶ Transfer Day

利用常规气象资料、数值预报产品、以及发射场加密观探测资料,分析神舟七号任务转运日大风降水过程,重点分析导致浅层风超过气象条件的形势、要素及物理量场。本次过程是在副高异常强盛、水汽较为充沛、北部小波动不断东移的背景下发生的;直接影响系统是西北路冷空气;气压场和温度场的变化明显反映冷空气的强度及影响时间;过程生消对应了场区附近正涡度区、较强辐合区、以及气流上升区的发生、加强及减弱。

By means of regular meteorological data, numerical products, and fine observed data of Jiuquan satellite launch site, the rainy transfer day with big wind of Shenzhou VK is analyzed which put the emphases on circulation, factors and physical fields that result in the low level wind which cannot meet the requirements of vertical transfer, The case is developed under the background of abnormal strong subtropical high, abundant water vapor, and continually eastward north small trough. It＇s the cold air from northwest that directly affected the launch site, and the variation of pressure and temperature fields obviously expressed the intensity and affecting time of the cold air. The lifetime of the process was corresponded with the breeding, developing and dying away of positive vorticity, strong convergence area, and upwards flow near the launch site.