全球金融动荡与传染的系统思考

The System Thinking for the Global Financial Volatility and Contagion

】自从１９９７年７月泰铢大幅贬值以来，一股波及全球的金融动荡至今未见终结，而与此有关的各种讨论层出不穷．这些研究对象主要定位于国家层次的传统分析方法，过份强调少数甚至个别因素的作用，常常是孤立地、静止地针对个别国家经济状况变化与政策失误来阐明全球金融动荡与传染．虽然这些讨论也涉及少量外界环境的变化，但缺少对外界环境发生本质变化的认识，缺少对各有关因素非线性综合作用的认识，缺少从经济系统变大后的全球大系统的角度来认识，缺少对全球经济间影响与传导机制产生本质变化的认识．总之，缺少系统性的认识．本文阐明了全球经济发展进入了即时强关联的第４个时代，正在经历着９个方面的本质变化．传统经济系统中的环境已逐渐变成系统的一部分，部分外生变量成为内生变量，国家与国家的经济关系在许多情况下也不再是一个国家系统与外界环境的关系，而是一个紧密相关的系统整体．因此，目前的监管体系已经无法适应这类大系统的管理，这是导致全球经济金融动荡的本质．本文指出了越是一体化，单独一个国家的货币政策等宏观调控手段对本国的作用就越小，而对它国的影响则越大，越需要联合行动，统一协调；指出了重新构建全球新的金融监管体系的重要性。

Since the considerable depreciation of Thailand baht in July 1997,the global financial volatility and contagion is beyond over.Many correlative discussions emerge in endlessly.While those traditional analysis methods,which are mainly applied to the research objects in the level of countries,always overemphasize the impact of a few even specific factors.The global financial volatility and contagion are always clarified isolatedly and still aiming at the changes of economic states in specific countries and their policy lapses.Although these discussions also involve some exoteric circumstance changes,they still lack the enough cognition of the substaintial changes of the exoteric circumstances;lack the one of the nonlinear comprehensive impact of all relative factors;lack the one of the global large scale economic system viewed from the expanded system;lack the one of the essential changes of affect and spread mechanism in the global economy.In general,they lack the system thinking.This paper illuminates that the global economy has developed into the fourth age,i.e.the instantaneous strong connecting age.Substaintial great changes,which would be summarized to night points,are happening now to the global economy.Some circumstance factors in the traditional system have gradually evolved into a part of the system.That is,some exogenous variables have become endogenous ones.In many cases the economic relations among cuntries have no longer been regarded as the relations between a country and it exoteric circumstance.All the countries in the world have become a closely correlative system whole.Therefore the present supervisory system has not been suited to manage this kind of large scale system anymore.That is the essence that leads to the global financial volatility and contagion.This paper also points out that the more integrative the world is,the weaker impact the macro control measures of a single country such as fiscal and monetary policies etc.could have on the country itself,while the greater on the other countries,thus the more necessary it is to take united and coordinate actions.The significance of the reconstruction of new global financial supervisory system is clarified as well as some feasible measures and some problems that need to be considered.