“货币荒”是怎样发生的?——货币供求的自适应与“紧张”均衡分析

How Does"Currency Shortage"Come About? —the Analysis of Self-adaptation and Tense Balance of Supply and Demand of Currency

金融创新一方面导致既定交易量的交易货币需求减少,一方面导致货币乘数内生提高从而货币供给内生增加。购买意愿-有效需求增加会激励货币市场内部(货币供给方面和货币需求方面)进行自适应的调整。因此,货币市场均衡有多种情况,其中两个极端情况是:(1)松货币供给和松货币需求的"宽松"均衡;(2)紧货币供给和紧货币需求的"紧张"均衡。有效需求增加会促使货币市场均衡由"宽松"趋于"紧张"。货币市场的紧张均衡和产品市场的过热状况紧密相连。在货币市场紧张均衡情况下,采取紧缩性的货币政策,有可能立即导致"支付锁链"的断裂和"货币荒"。

Financial innovations,on the one hand,result in the decrease in exchange currency de-mands in fixed exchanges;on the other hand,they lead to an endogenous increase in currency multiplier and accordingly,that in currency supply.The increase in purchasing intention,or rather,effective demands,will encourage the self-adaptation within the currency market in both currency supply and currency de-mand.As a result,two extremes in the balance in the currency market appear： first,the loose balance be-tween loose currency supply and loose currency demand;second,the tense balance between tense currency supply and tense currency demand.The increasing effective demands will change a loose balance in the currency market into a tense one.In the tense balance in the currency market deflation-oriented currency policies are likely to immediately cause the break of the payment chain and currency shortage.