2010-2011年中国宏观经济再展望

China's Macroeconomic Situation in 2010-2011: Forecast and Analysis

"中国季度宏观经济模型(CQMM)"课题组基于2010年8月底有关部门最新发布的中国宏观经济季度数据,调整并估计CQMM,对2010年下半年至2011年共六个季度的宏观经济主要指标进行预测,其中GDP增长率2011年预计回落到9%。本次预测模拟了靠投资激励增长对结构调整、转变经济发展方式的影响,以及提高工资或者人民币升值纠正国内外经济失衡的不同效果,结果显示投资增长拉动效应急剧下降,国民收入支出结构失衡进一步加剧,而提高国内劳工工资水平比本币升值更有利于纠正我国经济的内外不平衡。据此,课题组建议,十二五期间,我国应适当控制各地经济增长速度,逐步提高劳工工资,实施民生优先计划,逐步扩大财政对居民的直接转移支付。

The project team of＂China＇sQuarterly Macroeconomic Model＂（CQMM） adjusted CQMM according to China＇s quarterly macroeconomic data published at the end of August 2010 and forecasted China＇s major macroeconomic indices for six quarters from July 2010 to the end of 2011.GDP growth,among others,is forecasted to fall back to 9%.This forecast was done by simulating the impact of growth stimulated by investment on structural adjustment and transformation of modes of economic development,and the different effects of wage increase and appreciation of RMB on redressing China＇s internal and external economic imbalance.Our results indicate that there will be a drastic decrease in the effect of investment on boosting economic growth and a further aggravation of imbalance between national income and expenditure and that wage increase will work better than RMB appreciation to redress the problem of imbalance between China＇s internal and external economic development.It is therefore suggested that during the period of the Twelfth Five-year Plan a proper constraint be placed on regional economic growth,laborers＇s wages be increased gradually,the civil livelihood program be given top priority and direct transfer payment for citizens by public finance be expanded step by step.