抚顺≥33℃高温天气研究

Study on the ≥33 ℃ High Temperature Weather in Fushun

通过对抚顺1960~2009年≥33℃高温天气的气象要素和环流形势统计,分析高温天气时空分布特征,形成高温天气系统,初步得出高温预报指标及预报流程。结果表明,抚顺夏季高温日数呈增多趋势,进入90年代以后,高温日数、持续时间、强度有增加趋势;抚顺高温日出现在5~9月,其中7月份最多。高温空间分布抚顺西部多,东部少。大陆高压、副热带高压、强暖平流影响是高温天气出现的主要天气系统。高温预报指标为ECMWF数值预报当日08：00 850 hPa温度、500 hPa影响高压系统和高温日预报的14：00相对湿度、风力、云量,根据预报指标预报出当日最高气温。

Through the study on the meteorological element and circulation situation statistics of ≥33 ℃ high temperature weather in Fushun from 1960 to 2009,the paper analyzed the spatial and temporal distribution of high temperature weather,formed the high temperature weather system and obtained the high temperature forecast index and forecast process.The result indicated that,the high temperature days in summer in Fushun was increasing,especially in 1990s,the high temperature days,lasting period and strength all saw an increasing trend;the high temperature days in Fushun mainly appeared from May to September,the most in July.There were more high temperature days in west Fushun than in east.Mainland high pressure,subtropical high and strong warm advection were the main weather system of the high temperature weather.High temperature forecast index were the ECMWF numerical forecasting including the 850 hPa temperatures and 500 hPa influence high tension system at 08：00 as well as the relative humidity,wind power and the cloud amount at 14：00 in the same day,then the highest temperature was forecasted according to those forecast indices.