蒙特卡洛模拟法在城中村拆迁改造风险评估中的应用

Application of the Monte Carlo Simulation Method in Risk Assessment on the Demolition and Renovation of Villages in Cities Project

运用专家调查法和蒙特卡洛模拟相结合的研究方法,以项目内部收益率和净现值为指标,建立了城中村拆迁改造风险评估模型,对城中村拆迁改造风险进行了评估,并以实例进行了论证。

By uniting the expert investigation method and Monte Carlo Simulation method,the the project＇s internal rate of return（IRR） and net present value（NPV） were taken as index to built risk assessment model on the demolition and renovation of villages in cities.The risk of the demolition and renovation of villages in cities was evaluated and demonstrated by the example.