豫北安阳区域性夏季大旱成因分析及预测

Henan Northern Anyang Regional Summer Long Drought Causes Analysis and Forecasting

首先对1957—2009年共53年豫北安阳区域夏季降水资料进行统计分析,确定安阳区域性夏季大旱的标准,然后分析安阳区域性夏季大旱的成因,并利用这些分析结果进行预测.分析结果如下:利用大气环流分析大旱成因,主要表现在东亚沿海低槽较常年异常深厚和偏东以及西太平洋副高异常偏东、偏南和偏弱.利用太阳黑子分析大旱的形成,可以发现当年6—8月份太阳黑子相对平均数处于谷点或从谷点开始上升时就容易造成安阳区域性夏季大旱.厄尔尼诺现象对安阳区域夏季降水有明显的影响,尤其是较强的厄尔尼诺事件是造成安阳区域性夏季大旱的主要因子.利用亚洲中纬度地转西风急流分析研究,可以看出地转西风急流轴异常偏北,也可造成安阳区域性夏季大旱.

First statistical analysis in the area in henan province anyang rainfall information of 1957 to 2009 years,determine Anyang regional standards of the long drought.Then,analysts Anyang regional the long drought in summer,and to predict the result of these analyses.Analysis of results below：use of the atmospheric circula-tion of the long drought,it is mainly manifested in the east coast a very low in a deep and east,and the deputy high is the east,south and the weak.Use of the sunspots analysis the cause of the long drought,can be found in june to august in sunspot relative average in the valley from the point or to rise in the lead to regional anyang the long drought.El Nino has clear implications for the precipitation in Anyang,especially strong El incident is caused by Anyang regional Nino is the main factor in the long drought.We use the mid-latitude westerly winds to the current analysis study,can be seen in the west is the north,and may result in the long drought anyang regional.