应用灰色系统GM(1,1)模型预测梅毒发病率

Forecasting the incidence of syphilis with GM(1,1) model

目的:探讨预测江苏省梅毒发病率的数学模型,为梅毒防制工作提供科学的参考依据。方法:利用2004年～2009年江苏省梅毒的发病率资料建立GM(1,1)预测模型,并进行模型评价。结果:梅毒发病率的GM(1,1)模型为^Yt=53.1596e0.2253(t-1)-42.9478(t=1,2,…,n),拟合效果较好,同时利用模型外推预测了江苏省2010年的梅毒发病率。结论:如无较大规模的梅毒流行,运用此预测方法预测梅毒年发病率较为方便适用,2010年江苏省梅毒预测发病率为41.43/10万。

Objective：The study was conducted to explore a mathematical model which can forecast the incidence of syphilis in Jiangsu province,and provide the scientific evidence for the control of syphilis infection.Methods：Grey system GM（1,1）prediction model was built by using of the incidence of syphilis data from 2004 to 2009 in Jiangsu province,then it was evaluated.Results：The fitting result of GM（1,1）model of syphilis is better.The incidence of syphilis in 2010 is extrapolated from the model.Conclusion：Forecasting incidence of syphilis is 41.43 per 100 000 in the year 2010 in Jiangsu province.If there is no large-scale prevalence of syphilis in recent years,the GM（1,1）model method is more convenient to predict the incidence of syphilis.