1961-2007年鄱阳湖周边地区气温变化趋势分析

Trend Analysis of Long-term Temperature Time Series in the Area around Poyang Lake from 1961 to 2007

基于鄱阳湖周边10个气象观测站的日平均气温、日最高气温和日最低气温的观测资料,利用Mann-Ken-dall(M-K)趋势分析法和Pettitt-Mann-Whitney突变点检验法,分析了1961-2007年鄱阳湖周边地区气温序列的变化特征。结果表明:(1)鄱阳湖周边地区日平均气温、日最高气温和日最低气温的年均值呈上升趋势,日最低气温的年均值增温幅度最大(0.25℃/10a)且显著性水平高,日平均气温的年均值次之,日最高气温的年均值增温趋势显著性较低;(2)日平均气温和日最低气温的冬季均温不仅突变时间开始早、显著性水平高,而且增温幅度也是最大的,春季均温、秋季均温次之,而夏季均温变化均不显著;(3)对比分析发现(1971-2004年),鄱阳湖周边地区增温趋势与全国及全球一致,但升温幅度(0.33℃/10a)高于全国的升温幅度(0.21℃/10a),也明显高于同期全球平均的升温幅度(0.15℃/10a)。

Based on observed data of the daily average,maximum and minimum temperature from 10 meteorological stations around Poyang lake from 1961 to 2007,the trends and the change-points of temperature were detected by using the nonparametric Mann-Kendall test and Pettitt-Mann-Whitney change-point statistics.The major results could be summarized as follows： ①the annual mean of daily average,maximum and minimum temperature around Poyang lake displayed increasing trend,but the warming rate and significant level were different.The warming rate of the minimum temperature was about 0.247℃/10y and most significant,but the average and maximum temperature were not significant.②Except the winter mean of the daily maximum temperature,the other winter mean temperature increased significantly,followed by spring and autumn in sequence,but the change in summer was not significant.③Comparative analysis for the same period（1971-2004） showed that the warming trend around Poyang lake was according to that of China and global,but the warming rate（0.33℃/10y）was higher than that of China（0.21℃/10y）and global（0.15℃/10y）.