基于模糊灰元理论和模糊层次分析的油气管道有限费用最优维护决策分析

Decision-making analysis for optimum maintenance of oil and gas pipeline with limited expenses based on fuzzy-gray-element theory and fuzzy analytic hierarchy process

对油气管道维护中的维护措施的选择、多种维护措施的组合和最优维护方案的抉择进行定量分析,首次提出影响管道维护效能的维护人员固有因素、维护工作难易度、维护现场管理和维护环境条件4因素体系,建立了维护措施层次模型,引入基于三角模糊数的模糊层次分析法,对比各种维护措施维护效能确定单效能因素条件下维护措施的权重值和维护措施权重复合物元,从而提出4套在有限维护费用条件下基于各种维护措施效能因素权重的维护措施资金分配组合方案。借鉴将模糊数学、灰色理论和物元分析融合为一体的模糊灰元理论,将推荐的基于单维护措施效能因素权重的维护措施资金分配组合方案进行模糊灰元关联决策分析,根据最大关联度准则,从而最终确定出最优维护方案。

This paper quantitatively analyses selection,combination and optimization of measures in the maintenance of oil and gas pipelines.A 4-factor system is proposed for the first time,including the factors influencing the efficiency of maintenance,namely,person factor,fieldwork difficult degree,fieldwork management and environment condition.A hierarchy model of maintenance measures is established.The fuzzy analytic hierarchy process based on triangular fuzzy number is introduced.The effects of different maintenance measures are compared in order to determine the weight under single factor condition and composite matter element of maintenance measures.On the basis of the above analysis,4 methods of maintenance fund distribution are proposed based on different weight of efficiency factor of maintenance measures under the condition of limited expenses.With the fuzzy-gray-element theory combining fuzzy mathematics,gray theory and matter-element analysis,fuzzy-gray-element correlation decision-making analysis is carried out on the maintenance fund distribution scheme based on different weight of efficiency factor of maintenance measures.Finally,the optimum maintenance scheme can be determined according to the maximum correlation criterion.