基于空间计量经济模型的县域经济发展差异研究——以江苏省为例

Research on Spatial Disparity of Economy at County Level Based on the Spatial Econometrics Model:A Case Study of Jiangsu Province

采用1996—2008年江苏省各县(市)人均GDP经济指标,计算并分析江苏省县域单元经济发展整体空间特征,描述县域经济发展的不平衡性,进而运用全局空间自相关与局部空间自相关理论,定量描述自1996年以来江苏省县域单元经济空间格局的动态演化特征与趋势。结果表明:江苏省县域单元经济发展存在较强的空间自相关性,即县域经济发达的区域周边县域经济也往往较发达,反之亦然,并且空间发展格局呈现显著的集聚模式,且集聚态势越来越明显。空间格局更多表现为以苏州、无锡为核心的圈状空间结构,并成为江苏省县域经济发展的核心区域,而苏北地区则成为圈状结构的外围地带,且这种空间格局的分布状态在短时间内难以改变,对不同年际Moran’sI和LocalMoran’sI的计算与分析也较好地揭示了江苏省县域经济发展的时空演化规律。

The economic development promotes the regional spatial pattern of evolution,the overall spatial characteristics of economy describes the county＇s economic development imbalance.Thus the authors use the global spatial autocorrelation and local spatial autocorrelation theory,quantitatively analyse the characteristics and tendency of the dynamic evolution of spatial pattern of county-level economic units in Jiangsu Province.The results show that： There is a strong element of economic development spatial autocorrelation,meaning that the economy of counties which around the economically developed counties are often more developed,and vice versa.The spatial development pattern showed a significant accumulation mode,and the accumulation state is more and more obvious,spatial pattern is more likely to be the circle-shaped spatial structure which takes suzhou,Wuxi City as its core,while the northern Jiangsu area has become the peripheral zone of the ring-like structure,and this spatial pattern is difficult to change in a short time,different annual calculation and analysis of Moran＇s I betterly revealed this spatio-temporal evolution pattern of the county-level economy in Jiangsu Province.