河北省太行山区土地资源生态安全预警与调控研究

Early-Warning and Regulation of Ecological Safety of Land Resources in Taihang Mountains,Hebei Province

采用模糊优选模型和情景分析模型,选取河北省太行山区为研究区域,对其进行土地资源生态安全预警分析,并定量测度了各敏感因子对生态安全警情的影响程度。结果表明,研究区土地资源生态安全警情包括中警、轻警、预警3个等级,以轻警为主,所占面积比例达50%以上。从时间尺度上,整体生态安全警情呈缓慢好转态势。从空间尺度上,生态安全预警格局中段警情有所好转,南北两端警情趋于严重,尤其以南部最差。>15°坡耕地面积、人口密度、污染负荷指数、人均草地面积、人均林地面积、化肥农药负荷、景观破碎化指数、Shannon多样性指数、人均GDP和三废综合处理率10个敏感因子(权重>0.03)是影响研究区生态安全的重要因子,对总系统生态安全的综合贡献必须引起足够重视;各子系统对总系统生态安全的贡献率大小依次为状态子系统>压力子系统>响应子系统,因此需有针对性地对各个子系统及总系统进行调控。

The Taihang Mountains,Hebei Province was selected as study area for performance of early warning of ecological safety of land resources and quantitative measurement of impacts of various sensitive factors on outcome of the early warning using a fuzzy optimization model and a scenario analysis model.Results show that the warning of the land resources ecological safety in the study zone could be sorted into three levels,Yellow Alert,Blue Alert and Green Alert（of a five level alert system,green,blue,yellow,orange and red）.The area was dominated by Blue Alert,which covered over 50% in acreage.On the time scale,the overall situation of the zone is improving slowly.And on the spatial scale,the middle section of the area has somewhat improved,but the north and south tips are getting serious,especially the latter.Ten sensitive factors（weighing factor〉0.03） are the most important factors affecting the ecological safety in the study area.Their integrated contribution to safety of the whole ecological system should have aroused sufficient attention.In terms of contribution rate to the general system,the subsystems follow the order of status subsystempressure subsystemresponse subsystem.So it is essential to regulate selectively the subsystems and the general system.