政府消费最优规模对私人消费的影响研究--基于门限面板回归模型的实证分析

The Relationship between Optimal Size of Government Consumption and Private Consumption

本文采用门限面板回归模型对我国1978～2008年间29个省份(市)的面板数据进行实证分析,以检验政府消费性支出在促进私人消费和带动内需上是否存在Armey曲线效应。研究结果表明该命题在我国并不成立,即政府规模扩张并不会导致政府消费对私人消费挤入(促进)效应的大幅度下降或者逆转。其主要原因在于改革开放以来,政府规模高于17.74%的省份(市)主要集中在西部地区(如青海、宁夏、甘肃、陕西、新疆等地),这些地区和省份的经济发展水平以及基础设施建设相对落后,而与私人消费呈互补关系的公共物品和服务相对较为匮乏。政府消费规模扩张并不会直接导致政府消费与私人消费替代效应的进一步凸现,从而使得两者关系在某种程度上仍然保持互补关系,这同时说明改革开放以来中国的财政政策在很大程度上是有效的。

This paper uses threshold regression model to test whether there is an optimal size of government spending between government consumption and private consumption growth. The empirical results show that there is not Armey -curve effect in government spending＇s promotion of domestic demand and private consumption, that is, the expansion of government spending does not lead to a sharp drop in the crowd - in effect of government consumption toward private consumption, and therefore the size of govemment spending is not the main factor that affects the relationship between the two, which further provides a theoretical basis for the Chinese govemment＇s driving domestic demand through expansionary fiscal policies.