基于不同部门消费结构的跨期结构式凯恩斯乘数分析

The Inter-temporal Analysis of Structural Keynesian Multiplier Based on the Different Marginal Propensity to Consume and Consumption Structure of Different Sectors

本文以二阶段投入产出模型为基础,将各基础产业部门间的消费结构与边际消费倾向的差异内化于凯恩斯乘数的分析之中,通过对1997～2007年投入产出表数据的测算,探讨了我国各基础产业内部的异质性的结构式凯恩斯乘数。正是由于这种乘数效应存在部门性差异,要求政府在制定刺激消费的政策时,应根据不同的乘数效应采取多样性的政策措施。

On the basis of the second phase of the input - output model, this paper discusses the heterogeneous structural Keynesian multiplier within the different consumption structure and marginal propensity to consume between the basic industries through the 1997 - 2007 data of input - output table. According to this multiplier effect with seetoral differences, the government should take the diversity policies in stimulating consumption.