国际贸易对制造业行业就业的影响效应研究——基于动态面板数据模型的实证分析

Effects of International Trade on Manufacturing Employment:An Empirical Study Based on Dynamic Panel Data Model

构建一个扩展的劳动力需求动态计量模型,并利用系统GMM方法对2001—2008年中国制造业28个细分行业面板数据进行估计,检验国际贸易对制造业行业就业的影响效应。结果显示:出口、国内需求对制造业就业有显著正的影响,出口的就业影响效应大于国内需求;进口渗透以及出口导向引起的生产率变化对就业有消极作用,但都不显著;劳动力市场刚性对就业有显著影响。

Based on the S-GMM method,an extended econometrical model is established to assess the effect of trade on the manufacturing employment in china during 2001-2008.The economical results demonstrate that： Export and domestic demand have significant active affect on the employment,but the effect of export on employment is larger than the domestic demand;The import penetrations and export-induced productivity both have a negative effect on employment,but none of them is significant;Labor market rigidities has a significant effect on employment.