区域累积碳足迹测度系统动力学模型仿真实验研究——以甘南藏族自治州为例

Regional Cumulative Carbon Footprint Measure System Dynamic Model and Simulating Experiment——The Case of Gannan Tibetan Autonomous Prefecture

面对中央支持加快藏区跨越式发展和国家批复甘肃省循环经济示范区建设的两大历史机遇,针对甘南州生态环境现状和经济发展基础,提出用区域碳足迹测度作为区域温室气体减排和环境管理的考量指标。基于系统动力学原理构建累积碳足迹测度模型,并对2005—2020年甘南州全州及其各市县的累积碳足迹测度进行仿真与空间聚类分析。结果表明:时序上,全州总体呈现"碳亏",但近期减碳重点在畜牧养殖,远期区域内能源的消耗所产生的温室气体将成为碳排放的主导因素;空间分异上,牧区的"碳亏"较其它地区大,而地域面积较小的合作市和临潭县的"碳亏"最小。最后,建议在遵循"生态优先"和"限制开发"的原则基础上,依据产业梯度发展,区分战略主导产业、区域优势产业和地方特色产业,针对各自特点明确发展重点,加强生态修复与环境治理,建立生态补偿机制,鼓励碳汇交易试点,确保区域的生态安全和藏区跨越式发展目标的实现。

Facing two historic opportunities of speeding up Tibetan leapfrog development supported by the central authority and the construction program of Gansu circular economy demonstration approved by the state,according to the present environment situation as well as economic development foundation of Gannan Prefecture,the regional cumulative carbon footprint measurement,as a regional greenhouse gases reduction and environmental management index,is proposed.Based on system dynamics,the model is built to simulate the cumulative carbon footprint situations of Gannan Prefecture from 2005 to 2020 and to analyze its cities and countries by spatially clustering.It shows that the Carbon deficit of the prefecture,from the time series,can be forecasted.In addition,the recent carbon reduction should focus on livestock industry.In long term,regional energy consumption of the greenhouse gas carbon emissions should become the dominant factor to the regional greenhouse gases emission.Geographically,pastoral ＂carbon deficit＂ is more than other districts of the prefecture,and the ＂carbon deficit＂ of Hezuo city and Lintan country is smallest.At last,it suggests that strategy leading industries,regional competitive industries and local characteristics industries,following the principles of ecological priority and limited development and according to industry gradient development of the prefecture,should be planned.Moreover,each specific development priorities should be proposed,as well as ecological restoration and environmental remediation,ecological compensation and carbon sink trade to be encouraged,in order to ensure ecological safety and Tibetan leapfrog development goals.