基于月度数据的FDI与安徽外贸发展关系实证研究

An Empirical Study on the Relationship between FDI and Foreign Trade in Anhui——Based on Monthly Data

本文运用计量模型从外贸竞争力、贸易流量和贸易方式等三个方面考察了2003年1月到2009年6月间安徽省吸引外商直接投资与安徽外贸发展变化间的相互关系。结果表明,在样本区间内,FD I对安徽外贸竞争力变化的解释能力有限,而对机电产品出口贸易和加工贸易影响最大。短期外资变动反映在加工贸易出口和高新技术产品出口的变化上最为迅速,FD I与加工贸易出口互为格兰杰因果关系。

By constructing econometric model,the paper investigated from three aspects the relationship between FDI and Anhui foreign trade during the period from January,2003 to June,2009,that is,trade competitive,trade flows and trade pattern.The analysis shows that FDI has its limit in explaining the changes of trade competitive in Anhui,but has the strongest effect on processing trade as well as mechanical and electrical products export in the given sample space.A temporary fluctuation in FDI can be reflected the most quickly on the variance of processing export as well as Hi-tech products export.Besides,FDI that caused bilateral granger in processing export.