我国转变外贸增长方式的就业效应研究——基于27个制造业面板数据的经验分析

On the Effects of the Change in Foreign Trade Growth Mode on the Employment

首先构建一个包含出口、进口、工资、生产率和国内销售的劳动需求理论模型,并且推出贸易影响就业的直接效应和间接效应之路径。利用我国2001-2007年27个制造业面板数据,通过分别对2002-2004年和2005-2007年这两个时间段进行统计对比分析和计量分析,我们发现:就直接效应而言,自2005年实施转变外贸增长方式以来,出口增长对就业的直接带动作用减小;就间接效应而言,2005年以来实施转变外贸增长方式通过提升生产效率,对就业产生更大的不利影响。总之,实施转变外贸增长方式战略确实降低了制造业吸纳就业之能力。

This paper sets out to formulate a labor demand model covering the issues of export,import,wage and productivity,and then discusses how trade affects employment directly and indirectly.By analyzing the panel data of 27 China＇s manufacturing industries in 2002-2004 and 2005-2007 respectively,we find that（1） the direct positive effect of export growth has decreased on the employment since changing the way,in 2005,of foreign trade growth;（2） ever since that year,changing the pattern of foreign trade growth and increasing productivity have a greater negative impact,though indirect,on the employment;and（3） in a word,the implementation of the strategy of changing the growth mode of foreign trade really reduces the ability of the manufacturing sector to absorb employment.