气候变化对流域水资源影响评价中的不确定性问题

Uncertainty Analysis to the Impact Assessment of Climate Change on Basin Water Resources

正确评价气候变化背景下的流域水资源是实现其可持续性开发利用的基础,气候变化对流域水资源影响的评价一般采取气候情景驱动水文循环模型的方法。由于气候系统和水文循环过程的复杂性,该方法在气候情景、水文循环模拟及评价过程中存在很大的不确定性。提高流域气候情景预测精度和完善影响评价模型是降低气候变化影响评价结果不确定性的主要方式。本文介绍了气候变化对流域水资源影响的一般评价方法,分析了影响评价结果不确定性的因素,并讨论了降低评价结果不确定性的方式。

It is fundamental basis for achieving sustainable development of basin water resources that evaluate basin water resources under climate change. The method of hydrologic model droved by climate change scenario is usually applied in impact assessment of climate change on basin water resources. Due to the complexity of climate system and water cycle process, there are large uncertainty in the current assessment in climate change scenario and the processes of hydrologic models simulation and assessment. Therefor, improving the forecast accuracy of climate change scenario and completing impact assessment models are the main ways of reducing the uncertainty of impact assessment. This paper introduced some widely used methods of impact assessment of climate change on water resources, and analyzed some factors effecting assessment results and discussed the way of reducing its uncertainty