基于灰色关联分析的农业生态系统能量产投研究

Analysis of Energy Efficiency in the Agro-ecosystems in China Based on Grey Relevancy Theory

集成能量投入-产出分析和灰色关联分析方法,分析1961-2005年我国农业生态系统的能量投入-产出及能效率的变化,找出影响其变化的主导因素.结果表明:能量投入以畜力、有机肥和化肥为主,农业机械能和农业劳动力能比重小;随着能量投入的增加,单位耕地面积上的能量产出在波动中增长,1970年以来高于世界平均水平,但能效率在波动中下降.能效率与农业劳动力能和畜力能等传统动力能的关联性强,有机肥能投入减少对能效率的下降影响较大,化肥能的大量投入对总能量产出的贡献有限.因地制宜地增加机械能、提高有机肥能比重,有助于提高能效率.

In the present study,energy input-output analysis and grey relevancy analysis were combined to study the changes in energy input-output and energy efficiency in the agro-ecosystems of China from 1961 to 2005 and to investigate the leading factors responsible for these changes.The results showed that the contribution to energy input was in the order of animal power organic fertilizer chemical fertilizer agricultural machines.The largest contribution was made by agricultural workforce and animal power.In a fluctuating way,the energy output per unit area of cultivated land increased,being higher than the average of the world since 1970,but the energy efficiency declined.Energy efficiency was found to be closely correlated with the agricultural workforce and animal power.Input of organic manure helped to alleviate the drop of energy efficiency and great input of chemical fertilizer had but a limited contribution to the total energy output.In the future,it will play a very important role in increasing the input of mechanical energy and the proportion of organic manure according to local conditions for the improvement of energy efficiency.