生态系统服务价值评估预测模型的研究——以张家界森林公园为例

Research of forest ecosystem service cultural valuation prognostication model: taking Forest Park of Zhangjiajie as an example

森林生态系统服务价值评估是当前生态经济学和环境经济学的研究热点。应用SPSS软件中的Regression分析模块,对张家界森林公园的生态系统服务价值总量进行了预测。回归方程预测出的结果的平均绝对百分比误差率比较小,可将模型用于实际预测。结果表明:SPSS软件不仅有利于简化问题,减少计算的工作量,同时还可以保证预测的精度,为政府部门的决策提供有利的参考。

The valuation of forest ecosystem services is one of hotspot of ecological economics and environmental economics.The total value of ecosystem services in the Forest Park of Zhangjiajie was predicated by using the Regression module in SPSS.The value of regression＇s mean precent error was very small,and the model can be used to practical prognostication.The result indicates that the SPSS software not only predigested the problem and reduced the calculate workload,but also improved the forecasting accuracy,and can provide a useful teference for government departments＇decision-making.