薄隔水层井筒底板突水的突变模型

The Sudden Change Model of Water Outburst at Vertical Shaft Floor of Thin Water Resisting Layer

在薄板理论的基础上，建立了立井井筒底板突水的突变模型。运用突变理论的分析方法，求得了井筒底板隔水层的最小理论安全厚度，这与典型案例实际情况基本相符。论文根据在大涨落存在的前提下突变发生所遵循的Ｍａｘｗ ｅｌｌ规则，对理论值和实际值的偏差作了合理的解释，还提出了解决该偏差的一种近似计算方法。所进行的研究工作，为井筒突水的预测及确定隔水层的安全厚度，提供一种新的理论方法和途径。

On the basis of the thin plate theory, the cusp catastrophe model of water outburst at vertical shaft floor could be set. The minimum theoretical safe thickness of the water resisting layer at shaft floor was obtained according to the analysis of the catastrophe. The computed result tallied with the actual situation. The deviation between them could be rationally and theoretically explained according to Maxwell rule followed by catastrophe with the existence of great disturbance. Meanwhile, an approximate method to solve this problem was provided. The result could be used to predict the water outurst at shaft floor and to determine the safe thickness of the water resisting layer.