台湾储蓄互助社规模与成长之研究——Gibrat's Law应用

Research on Size and Growth Nexus of Taiwan's Credit Unions——An Application of Gibrat's Law

本文系探讨台湾储蓄互助社规模与成长间关系有否符合吉尔伯特法则(Gibrat's Law),利用1996年至2007年储互社纵横资料(panel data)分析台湾310家储蓄互助社的资产总额、社员人数及教育支出等变数。经由Levin,Lin&Chu及IPS单根检定结果发现,台湾储互社规模变量皆拒绝虚无假设,且呈现定态不具有单根的现象,此显示出台湾储蓄互助社规模与其成长实际上具有关联性,隐含了储互社成长没有随机漫步现象也不符合吉尔伯特法则,表示台湾储互社长期无需集中扩大增加其规模。

This paper has explored whether the size-growth relationship for the Taiwan Residents credit unions accords with Gibrat＇s Law by using panel data of credit unions between 1996 and 2007 to analyse variables as assets,number of members and educational expenditures.Levin,Lin,Chu and IPS panel unit root test tell us that the variable size for Taiwan＇s credit unions rejects null hypothesis without panel unit root when stable.And this indicates the relevance of size of Taiwan credit unions to its growth,implies that credit unions neither develop randomly nor accord with Gibrat＇s Law,and shows that it＇s unnecessary for Taiwan credit unions to focus on expansion in the long run.