劳动力缺失背景下新型农村养老保险需求及其影响因素研究

On New Rural Endowment Insurance Demand and its Determinants under the Background of Labor Force Deficiency

新型农村养老保险试点工作的全面开展、制度优化完善必须充分考虑农村现实状况和农民实际需求,本文以劳动力缺失、老龄化加剧、家庭养老功能弱化为背景,对陕西省西安市10个涉农区县开展实地调查,通过问卷设计与数据收集,获取1156个有效样本,综合运用描述性统计、相关分析和二分类、多分类逻辑回归分析方法,从参保意愿和支付能力的二维视角实证研究新型农村养老保险需求及其影响因素,结果表明:养老风险意识、新农保政策了解程度、新农保政策效果和缴费原则认可程度、耕地面积、期望养老金额是新农保参保意愿的显著影响因素,而表征经济状况的农民家庭年总收入、年基本支出与新农保支付能力之间具有显著的因果关系。

The current situation of country and the actual demand of farmers should be considered in order to carry out a comprehensive experimental work and improve the system of the New Rural Endowment Insurance.Under the background of the labor force deficiency,aging increased and the family pension functions weakened,the paper selects 10 countries in Xi＇an City of Shaanxi Province as investigative area,and obtains 1156 samples by questionnaire design and data collecting,and uses the descriptive statistical analysis method,correlation analysis,binomial and multinomial logistic regression analysis method to make an empirical study on the New Rural Endowment Insurance demand and its determinants by a two-dimensional perspective of participation will and payment capacity.The results show that the pension risk awareness,policy familiarity of the New Rural Endowment Insurance,agreement of policy effect and payment principles of the New Rural Endowment Insurance,arable area and expected pension are the determinants of participation will;and there is a significant relationship between farmer＇s family income and expenditure and payment capacity of the New Rural Endowment Insurance.