人口增长率与人口规模关系的实证研究——基于中国省际面板数据的分析

The Research about Population Growth Rate and Population Scale:Based on the Analysis of the Province Panel Data

文章在内生经济理论的框架下推导了在一定条件下人口增长率与人口规模负相关的结论,同时基于1954年至2007年的数据,运用动态面板数据模型验证了人口增长率与人口规模负相关。文章的动态面板协整检验表明,我国人口规模每增加一亿,人口增长率将减少2.13‰,我国人口规模将会达到15.4亿的峰值,然后人口增长率出现负增长。最后文章的格兰杰因果检验也表明,人口规模的变化是人口增长率变化的格兰杰原因。

In the framework of Endogenous Growth Theory,under certain conditions,we derive the conclusion that the population growth rate is negative to the population scale.Meanwhile,based on the province data of the years of 1954 to 2007,using the dynamic panel data model,we test the relationship between the population growth rate and population scale.The test shows that population growth rate will be reduced by 2.13‰ for each additional 100 million of China＇s population scale,and the population will increase in a negative way after the size of China＇s population reach 1.54 billion peak.finally,Granger causality test shows that the change of population scale is the Granger causes of the change of population growth rate.