基于模糊数学的城市地铁项目决策评价方法

Decision Method of Urban Subway Project Based on Fuzzy Mathematics

开发利用城市地下空间是解决土地资源紧张的重要方法,是改善城市环境的有效手段,也是解决城市交通、能源危机的办法之一,城市向地下要空间是大势所趋。地下空间一旦开发利用,地层结构将不可能恢复到原来的状态,已建地下建筑物的存在也将影响邻近地下空间的使用。因此,城市地下空间开发利用的决策必须要做到合理、科学、慎重。国内地下空间建设主要以城市地铁建设为标志,各大城市都做好了地铁的中长期规划。本文采用多层次模糊数学综合评判模型,从经济、环境、社会以及工程地质条件四大方面的因素入手对北京地铁十号线二期项目进行决策分析,各指标因素的权重系数则通过层次分析法来确定。本文将多层次模糊综合评判法和层次分析法有机结合,实现对城市地铁项目进行有效的、合理的综合评价,为决策者在地铁项目决策分析时提供借鉴。

The utilization of underground space is an important supplement of land resources and an effective measure to improve the urban environment. In addition, it could resolve the crisis of urban transportation and energy. Once urban underground space has been exploited, stratigraphic configuration can never be back to the original state. The completed subsurface structures also influence utilization of surrounding area. So the decision of urban under- ground space exploitation must be reasonable, scientific, far-sighted. At present, the utilization of underground space is characterized by subways construction in China, so each key city has worked out a medium and long-term planning. In this paper, the decision of the 2nd phase of Bcijing Subway No. 10 project is analyzed with a method of multiplayer fuzzy synthetic evaluation model in terms of economy, environment, society and engineering geological condition. The weight coefficient of each factor is determined by analytic hierarchy process. Multiplayer fuzzy synthetic evaluation model and analytic hierarchy process are combined organically to evaluate urban subway projects effectively and rea- sonably and offer a reference to decision makers.