中国区域经济差异演进趋势分析——基于政策导向和收敛速度的双重视角

The Prospect of China's Regional Disparity Trend——Basde on the Viewpoint of Policy Guidance and Convergence Speed

从两个方面对我国未来区域差距的演进趋势进行预测。鉴于国家政策对区域经济发展具有明显的引导作用,而国家的五年规划是中央关于国家未来经济发展方向最重要的指导性文件,因此,首先,根据我国"十二五"规划内容对我国几大区域未来发展的走向进行大致判断;其次,通过随机效应的面板数据模型计算我国区域经济增长的收敛速度,由此判断我国区域经济差距的演进趋势。

This paper forecast the trend of China＇s regional disparity in future in two aspects.Considering the ＂Five-year plan＂policy＇s obvious guidance effect on regional economic development,so we predict the main developing trend of the regional economic development according to the ＂Twelfth Five-year Plan＂and other regional policy.Then calculate the convergence speed of China＇s regional economic growth by the Panel data madel with random effects,and forecast trend of China＇s regional economic development.