中国能源消费碳排放影响因素分析

Analysis on Effect Factors of Carbon Emission from Energy Consumption

利用改进的主成分回归分析技术考察1990年以来中国人口和经济因素对化石能源消费碳排放的影响作用。研究发现:以人口总量、人口城市化和居民收入水平为代表的人口因素和以经济规模、产业结构、能耗结构及碳排放强度为代表的经济因素对碳排放均具有显著的正向影响;其中,经济规模和人口总量是能源消费碳排放的关键决定因子。研究结果为国家制订合理的节能减排政策、协调人地关系提供了参考依据。

In this paper,an improved principal component regression was used to study effect of population and economic factors on carbon emission from energy consumption since 1990.The results showed that：population factors had the significant positive effect,which included population quantity,population urbanization and income level.Then economic factors which included economies scale,industrial structure,energy structure and carbon intensity also had the significant positive effect.The role of economies scale was largest in all selected variables and energy structure was smallest.The paper provided the references for energy-saving and ejection-decreasing program and coordinating human-environment relations.