进出口贸易对中国隐含碳排放量的影响：2000-2009年--基于国内消费视角的单区域投入产出模型分析

The Influence of International Trade to China’s Embodied Carbon Emissions During 2000-2009:Based on Consumption and SRIO Model

每年大量的"中国制造"不断出口到发达国家,这些出口产品背后的隐含碳排放问题不容忽视。与已有文献主要利用美国、日本等国的数据间接获得中国碳排放率不同,本文通过直接计算中国2002、2005和2007年分产业部门的碳排放率,再以国内消费活动为标准利用单区域投入产出模型估算中国2000-2009年的隐含碳排放量,分析贸易碳排放净差不断增加的原因。实证结果表明,中国国内消费的碳排放总量将比国际公布的数据有所减少。中国在2000-2009年间保持贸易碳排放顺差,出口的高增长快速拉动了中国碳排放总量的增加。各国应当共同改善现行的碳排放量测算体制,同时中国也要鼓励低碳产品和技术贸易。

The problem of CO2 embodied in international trade has attracted increasing attention in China. In order to analyze the reasons,this paper first calculates emission factors directly,which covers 15 industries in 2002,2005 and 2007. Then we adopt consumption-based system and SRIO model to estimate China’s embodied emissions during 2000-2009. Our results show that China’s emissions should be less than announced amounts if consumption-based system is adopted. The sharply growing exports play a leading role in the increase of total amounts of carbon emissions of China. Countries should strengthen their cooperation to improve current emissions estimating system. China also needs to encourage the trade of low-carbon products and technology.