服务贸易能平缓经济冲击吗——基于美国经济波动跨国传导的研究

International Transmission Mechanism of US Economic Fluctuation: Buffer Role of Trade in Service

服务贸易在经济波动跨国传递中的冲击分解为需求冲击、供给冲击和名义冲击后,并运用美国与各东道国的双边服务贸易数据进行考察。结果发现:服务贸易占总贸易额的比例以及东道国对服务贸易的开放程度对于服务贸易是否可以成为经济波动的跨国传导机制至关重要;服务贸易对东道国的需求冲击效应(反向冲击)占了主导地位,明显大于供给冲击(正向冲击)与名义冲击(正向冲击)效应的总和;服务贸易对东道国经济的净冲击方向与其他经济波动传导机制的冲击方向刚好相反,大小基本相同,而服务贸易冲击相对滞后。据此,可充分发挥服务贸易的逆向冲击作用,构筑缓和外部经济冲击的服务贸易"稳定器"政策。

Trade in service is the international transmission channel of economic fluctuation, when refer to the economic fluctuation of US, we find that it is more significant for developed countries, such as France, Italia and UK, than for most NIEs and LDCs, such as Korea, China, Brazil and Mexico. In addition, the shock direction of trade in service to the economy is contrary to the shock direction of the economic itself. In order to smoothing the extemal shock to the econo my, we can construct the stabilizer policy with trade in service.