GM(1,1)模型在大肠埃希菌头孢他啶耐药性拟合与推测中的应用

The Application of Fit and Presume in The Trend of Resistance of E.Coli to Ceftazidime by GM(1,1) Model

目的探讨GM(1,1)模型在大肠埃希菌头孢他啶耐药性拟合与推测中的应用价值。方法收集1996～2008年期间国内中文期刊全文数据库(CNKI)文献报道大肠埃希菌头孢他啶耐药性数据。采用GM(1,1)模型对数据进行拟合与推测,以RSE,MAD,ARE判断拟合效果。结果共收集1996～2008年期间国内大肠埃希菌头孢他啶耐药相关文献386篇,数据910条。GM(1,1)模型拟合所得RSE,MAD,ARE值均较小,拟合准确度较高。GM(1,1)模型推测结果显示未来五年大肠埃希菌头孢他啶耐药率呈快速增长趋势。结论 1996～2008年国内大肠埃希菌头孢他啶耐药性呈上升趋势。GM(1,1)模型可精确拟合与推测该趋势。GM(1,1)模型推测结果提示临床应加强联合用药,必要时需更换药物以阻止耐药性进一步升高,减少医疗资源的浪费。

Objective Study on GM（1,1）model fit and presume the trend in resistance of E.coli to Ceftazidime.Methods The realistic data about drug-resistance of E.coli to Ceftazidime were collected from the China National Knowledge Internet（CNKI） during 1996～2008 years.Using GM（1,1）model to fit and presume the drug-resistance data.Judging the fitted results by RSE,MAD and ARE.Results 386 papers and 910 data were collected from CNKI about drug-resistance of E.coli to Ceftazidime during 1996～2008 years in China.GM（1,1）model fitted results show minor value in RSE,MAD,ARE and high accuracy.GM（1,1）model presume results show a quickly increasing trend in drugresistance of E.coli to Ceftazidime in next five years.Conclusion The drug-resistance of E.coli to Ceftazidime show a increasing trend during 1996～2008 years in China.GM（1,1）model could fit and presume the resistant trend very well.GM（1,1）model presume results suggest that clinician should consider strengthening the combination therapy,appropriating replacement drugs to prevent the increasing of drug-resistance and reduce waste of resources.