短期国际资本流动对我国的影响与防范

The Impact of Short International Capital Flows on China and Its Prevention

当前,短期国际资本向新兴经济体特别是亚洲新兴经济体大量流动,新兴经济体已有形成资产泡沫的风险。对于中国而言,热钱温和流入并时有反复可能将成长期趋势。要摆脱国际热钱大规模流动带来的一系列困扰,必须采取疏堵结合的方式,一方面,采取有效的防御性措施,监控各类热钱,加强流入管制,建立防范流出的预案;另一方面,应重视疏导的作用,增强汇率弹性,管理通胀预期,抑制泡沫膨胀,吸引中长期国际资本。

At present,the international capital flows to emerging economies,especially to Asia,the risk of emerging economies asset bubbles have formed and continue to expand in the future.For China,a moderate flow of speculative hot money will become long-term trend may be repeated.To get rid of difficulties brought by international hot money flow,a series of settlement must be taken,on the one hand,and take effective defensive measures to monitor all kinds of hot money to strengthen the flow of control,the establishment of preventive outflow of the plan;the other hand,attention should be paid to ease the role of exchange rate more flexible to manage inflation expectations,inhibit foam expansion,attracting long-term international capital.