我国农村居民文教娱乐用品及服务消费需求实证分析

The Empirical Analysis on Cultural,Education and Recreation Product and Services of Rural Residents in China

文教娱乐消费支出对于一国国民素质的提高,经济的发展具有重要的作用。文章首先描述了我国农村居民文教娱乐用品及服务消费现状,然后以2003—2009年中国统计年鉴为基础,利用扩展线性支出系统模型(ELES),并借助于SPSS13.0统计软件对2002—2008年我国农村居民文教娱乐的边际消费倾向、需求收入弹性、基本需求进行了实证分析。结果表明,边际预算份额前四位按大小排序是吃、住、交通通讯、文教娱乐,说明文教娱乐将是农村居民未来的消费热点之一;文教娱乐用品及服务的需求收入弹性大于0小于1,说明如果我国农村居民收入增加,将会增加对文教娱乐用品及服务的消费;仍有一部分农村居民尚未满足基本需求,需要社会救济,这会抑制农村居民文教娱乐用品及服务消费需求的增加。最后,文章提出促进农村居民收入、增加文教娱乐设施投入、重视教育、发展教育信贷、健全农村社会保障制度、农村居民要转变观念等一系列促进农村居民娱乐消费需求的建议。

Cultural,education,and recreation expenditures for the improvement of the quality of a country,economic development has an important role.At first,this paper describes the cultural,education and recreation product and services Status quoin of rural residents in China.Based on the 2003-2009 China statistical yearbook,using the ELES,and then analyses the marginal propensity of consumption,income elasticity of demand and the basic demand of rural residents in China from 2002 to 2008 with SPSS13.0 Statistical software.The results from this paper are as follows：Marginal share of the budget is sorted by size before the 4 food,housing,transportation and communications,cultural,education,and recreation.Cultural,education,and recreation shows will be one of the consumption hotspot of rural residents in the future.Income elasticity of demand of cultural,education,and recreation is greater than 0 less than 1,that shows rural residents in China will increase cultural,education and recreation consumption of product and services if them income increase.and still part of the rural residents unmet basic needs,in need of social relief,this will inhibit the increasing of cultural,education,and recreation of rural residents in China.Finally,this paper puts forward some suggestions that promote rural residents cultural,education,and recreation consumption demand such as promoting rural residents income,increasing input of cultural,education,and recreation facilities,paying attention to the education,developing education credit,perfecting countryside social security system,changing the idea of rural residents etc.