赤峰大甸子水位预报方法效能及指标研究

CHIFENG DADIANZI WATER LEVEL FORECAST METHOD POTENCY AND INDEX RESEARCH

本文结合2009年度震情跟踪一般性合同制定向工作任务项目的部分内容,对赤峰大甸子井异常提取及特征研究的16种方法进行了映震能力、前兆效益水平和区域地震三要素分析研究。原始日均值、气压系数、复相关系数、从属函数和异常频次累加等方法的映震能力R值超过0.7,异常主要以超2倍方差的突跳加剧和破年变特征为主;从属函数、变化率、变差法、异常频次累加和相对均方差分析等方法的前兆效益水平Q值相对较高,具有一定预测意义;利用大甸子井16种异常提取指标异常持续时间进行中强地震发震时间的预报,异常持续半年内发震的概率很高,该井400Km左右范围内未来发震震级一般为5～6级,NW向是未来5～6级地震发生的优势分布方向。

According to the partial contents of the seismologic track in the general contract formulation duty project,16 methods of extracting the anomalies of Dadianzi well in Chifeng and researching the characteristics were analyzed from three aspects,which are the earthquake reflecting ability,the precursor benefit level and the three elements of earthquake.All the earthquake reflecting ability R value surpass 0.7,which included the primitive daily mean value,the coefficient of the atmospheric pressure,the duplicate correlation coefficient,the subordinate function and the anomaly frequency accumulation.The main abnormal characteristics appeared in the form of the increasing kick by twice variances and the breaking annual variation.The precursor benefit level Q value in the methods of the subordinate function,the change rate,the variation method,the anomaly frequency accumulation and the relative mean-square deviation analysis was relative high.It has some significance in earthquake prediction.Moderate earthquakes were forecasted by using 16 anomaly extraction indexes and the anomaly lasting time in Dadianzi well.It was found that earthquakes occurred frequently in half a year when the anomaly appeared continuously.The level of the earthquakes to be happened 400km around the well in the future would be M5～6.And NW direction is the superiority distributed direction where M5～6 earthquakes would occur.