基于RS和GIS的深圳特区绿地景观动态分析及预测

Dynamic analysis and prediction of green space landscape based on the RS and GIS in Shenzhen special economic zone

在遥感和地理信息系统支持下,以2002和2005年两期的QuickBird高分辨率卫星影像为数据源,利用景观指数和转移矩阵法分析了深圳特区绿地景观格局的动态变化,并应用马尔可夫模型对今后6年(至2011年)绿地动态变化趋势进行了定量预测。结果表明:深圳特区绿地景观变化的主要特征为人工绿地景观组分不断增加,而原有的自然绿地景观组分不断减少;绿地景观斑块破碎度增加,斑块形状趋于规则化,多样性指数和均匀度上升,优势度下降,景观类型有向多样化、均匀化方向发展的趋势;预计至2011年研究区绿地总面积不断增加,但生态效益较高的自然绿地面积将会减少。

Supported by remote sensing （RS） and the geographic information system （GIS） and the data of high-resolution QuickBird satellite images in 2002 and 2005, the dynamic changes of green space landscape pattern in Shenzhen special economic zone （Shenzhen SEZ） were analyzed using landscape index and transfer matrix methods. The Markov Chain model was used to predict the trends of green space in the subsequent six years. The results showed that the primary characteristics of green space landscape were increasing artificial green space and decreasing natural green space, increasing fragmentation degree of green space patches, increasing index of diversity and evenness with patch shape regularized, decreasing dominance, and trends of diversification and evenness of the landscape. It is predicted that the total area of green space would increase and the ecological benefit of natural green space area would decrease by 2011.