CDM林业碳汇市场前景及碳信用的交易策略

Forestry Market Perspective and Transaction Strategies for Forestry CERs under CDM

基于对目前CDM林业碳汇市场交易量、碳信用价格、碳信用有效期、市场需求及未来承诺期《京都议定书》谈判进展的分析,分析未来承诺期CDM林业碳汇市场的前景及出售林业碳信用的交易策略。结果表明:目前CDM林业碳汇市场仍处于起步阶段,在2012年以后的未来承诺期,其发展空间会更大。第一承诺期结束时,可实现的交易量至少达到7500万tCO2-e;2012年可能是CDM林业碳汇市场最为活跃的一年;鉴于CDM林业碳汇市场及项目的特点,我国项目开发商在签订ERPA时,应该选择灵活的交易量和交易期、灵活的付款方式、固定碳信用价格、出售lCER等交易策略。

In order to study the tendencies of the markets and the sellers strategies for forestry CDM,this paper reviews status of the markets for forestry CDM such as transaction volumes,forestry credit prices,expiry of forestry credits,the demand of forestry credits and negotiation progress in the future commitment period of the Kyoto Protocol.The results showed that the markets for forestry CDM are still at an early stage and have wide space to develop beyond 2012.The volume of trade in the CDM market could reach to more than 75 m of carbon credits before 2012.The year of 2012 would be the most active period for trading activity for forestry CDM.It is suggested that when signing ERPA developers should have some flexibility as to the volume of carbon credits and the time frame of delivery,and choose a combination of up-front payment and payment on delivery in payment schedule,and a fixed price for price setting,and selling lCERs.