人口增长与中国历史上土地经营制度演化——对明清时期土地经营制度演化的博弈解释

Population Growth and the Evolution of Land Operation System in the History of China:Game Analysis of the Evolution of Land Operation System in the Ming and Qing Dynasties

中国历史上的土地经营方式很少受到制度性限制,土地经营制度的演变是人们为适应经济环境的变化而自然选择的结果。人口与土地相对价格的变化是中国历史上土地经营制度变迁的主要原因。土地经营制度演化博弈模型说明,在未受人口压力扰动下,土地经营制度博弈存在多重均衡,人们选择哪一种土地经营制度依赖于其所处的初始条件;在人口增长的持续冲击下,定额租制是唯一的随机稳定均衡。处于随机稳定均衡状态的定额租制比其他制度安排更有效率。

The land operation pattern in the history of China rarely encountered systematic restriction,and the evolution of land operation system is the result of natural selection in order to adapt the changes of economic environment.The relative price change between population and land is the main determinant of institutional changes of land operation system in the history of China.Evolution game analysis of land operation system indicates that,without population pressure,there is multiple equilibrium in the land-operation institutional game and people＇s selection of land operation system depends on initial conditions.But the fixed rent system which is more efficient than other institutional arrangements is the only stochastic stable equilibrium under the continuous pressure of population growth.