地理信息滑坡监测预报系统及其在抚顺西露天矿滑坡中的应用

GIS-Based Landslide Monitoring and Forecasting System and Its Application in the Landslide of Fushun West Open-Pit

为了能够准确有效地针对滑坡地质灾害进行监测和预报工作,给出一种新型的滑坡监测预报系统。该系统以GIS技术为基础,通过MapGIS软件形成图形文件的链接输入,实现与地理信息系统的融合。这种方法引入了滑坡空间滑动特征,可针对滑坡不同时段的特点采用多种预报模块实现对空间数据的处理,并通过VB6.0集成开发将结果还原至图形以可视化,来实现各类滑坡预报以及空间分析。将该监测预报系统应用到抚顺西露天矿地质灾害防治工作中,以GPS监测站等监测设施对抚顺西露天矿地质灾害开展的多类型的现场监测为依据,对抚顺西露天矿地质灾害防治及预报进行分区模块处理;并以抚顺西露天矿E3200剖面滑坡为例,结合非线性回归分析及二次曲线拟合得到了X-3、X-5监测点的中短期预报数据和水平及竖直方向的速度、加速度等参量。根据竖直最大加速度为正值、竖直负向加速度小于10-5m/d2以及水平加速度均为负值等特点,得到该滑坡基本处于匀速变形阶段及位移变化有收敛趋势的结论。

In order to make landslide monitoring and forecasting accurate and efficient,the authors present a new method of landslide monitoring and forecasting system,which is based on the GIS technique and intergrates with GIS by linking to input the MapGIS graphics files.In this system,the characteristics of landslide area is adopted to realize spatial data processing for the characteristics of landslides in different periods by using various types of forecasting module.And then it restores the results into the graphics types and can be visualized by the programming with language Visual Basic 6.0.Various types of field monitoring have been carried out in geological disaste prevetion of Fushun west open-pit.Through GPS stations and other monitoring facilities,the system has been applied in the prevention work of Fushun west open-pit geological disaster,and relevant conclusion about landslide period and displacement trend are drawn by landslide prediction after the partition module processing.Take profile E3200 landslide as an example,combined with non-linear regression analysis and quadratic curve fitting,the short-term forecasting data,velocity,acceleration and other parameters of monitoring points X-3 and point X-5 have been gained.It can be concluded that the landslide is at the stage of uniform deformation and the displacement has a convergence trend according to the rules that the vertical maximum acceleration is positive,the vertical negative acceleration is less than 10^-5m/d^2 and the level acceleration is negative.