摘要
根据现代生物技术开发周期长、发展阶段多、高技术风险和高市场风险并存的特征,以阶段门模型为基础,构建了改进的二项式实物期权定价模型。与传统二项式模型相比,改进后的模型区分了技术风险和市场风险,并在期权计算公式中增加了技术成功概率参数,反映了现代生物技术项目的内在特征。最后以新药开发项目为例,详细介绍了模型在现代生物技术产品定价分析中的应用。
As modern biotechnology development is characterized by long development cycles,multiple development phases,high technical risks and high market risks,this paper proposes an improved binomial lattice pricing model of real options based on the stage gate model.Compared with the traditional method,the proposed model distinguishes technical risks from market risks by adding the probability of technical success to real option formula,which reflects the intrinsic features of modern biotechnology projects.Finally,the development project of new medicine is exemplified so as to illustrate the application of the proposed model to the pricing of modern biotechnology products.
出处
《系统工程》
CSSCI
CSCD
北大核心
2010年第10期123-126,共4页
Systems Engineering
基金
国家自然科学基金资助项目(70941029)
重庆交通大学青年科学基金资助项目(XN200917)
