人均GNP与高等教育毛入学率的计量分析

Analysison GNP per capita and gross enrollment rate of higher education with economics method

本文运用Eviews5.1软件对1990～2007年的人均GNP和高等教育毛入学率两个时间序列进行单位根检验、格兰杰因果关系检验、自回归分布滞后模型等计量分析,得出结论:在我国,人均GNP和高等教育毛入学率之间并不存在明显的因果关系。并用自回归分布滞后模型对二者的关系进行了模拟。

This paper analyzes the time-series data from 1990 to 2007 on GNP per capita and gross enrollment rate of higher education,by the empirical methods of unit root test,granger causality test and auto-regressively distributed lag model.It shows that in China there has no obvious causal relationship,simulated by auto-regressively distributed lag model,between GNP per capita and gross enrollment rate of higher education.