需求侧峰谷分时电价对供电公司购售电风险影响分析模型

Analysis Model on the Impact of Demand-Side TOU Electricity Price on Purchasing and Selling Risk for Power Supply Company

供电公司购电风险主要表现为现货市场发电电价的不确定性,售电风险表现为峰谷分时电价及其对负荷变化影响、对销售电量影响的不确定性。一般来说,现货市场电价与需求侧负荷水平呈正相关关系,负荷水平越高,现货市场发电电价也越高。峰谷分时电价可以降低高峰负荷需求,从而降低发电高峰电价,降低供电公司购电成本。但是,分时电价同时也减少了供电公司的高峰电价段的销售电量,使得高峰时段售电收益下降。本文建立数学模型对此风险进行分析,算例分析表明,合理确定电价差率以及合约市场购电比例,可以使供电公司有效地规避市场风险、提高经营效益。

The risk of purchasing electricity for power supply company is mainly expressed in the uncertainty of price in the spot market,and the risk of selling electricity in the uncertainty of time-of-use（TOU） electricity price and its impact on load changes and sales of electricity.In general,the spot market price and demand-side load are positively correlated.The higher load level is,the higher the spot market price is.TOU electricity price can decrease load demand for the peak periods,thereby reducing electricity price for the peak periods and the cost of purchasing electricity for power supply companies.But TOU electricity price cuts down electricity sales of power supply companies for the peak periods,which results in sales income falling.All these uncertainty bring a risk to the purchasing and selling electricity of power supply companies.The mathematical models are established in this paper to analyze the impact of this risk.A numeric example shows that fixing on the reasonable price gap and purchasing proportion of contract market can avoid market risks and improve operational efficiency for supply companies.