交通基础设施投资、区域经济增长及空间溢出作用——基于公路、水运交通的面板数据分析

Transport Infrastructure Investment,Regional Economic Growth and the Spatial Spillover Effects——Based on Highway and Marine's Panel Data Analysis

本文利用1978—2008年省级面板数据研究了公路、水运交通固定资本存量对中国经济增长的空间溢出作用,发现:公路水运交通固定资本存量从总体上看对区域经济增长起着正向作用,在2001年之后,这种影响变为负向;总体看公路水运交通固定资本的滞后效应不很明显,但在2001—2008年期间,滞后五期时,公路水运交通固定资本对GDP的弹性由负转为正。外地公路水运交通固定资本存量对区域经济增长的作用从全国范围看存在正向效应,但不同区域不同时段存在差异。具体地,外地公路水运资本存量对东部地区区域经济增长始终呈现明显的正向作用,对中部地区的影响则由负向效应转向正向效应,对西部地区的影响在1995年之前存在正向效应,1995年之后不显著。应将地区间的空间相关性纳入到交通基础设施及经济增长的分析与政策制定过程中。

The paper investigates the effects of highway and marine＇s fixed capital stock on regional growth using the provincial panel data during 1978—2008.Briefly,we find：①The highway and marine＇s capital stock＇s effect on local region＇s economic growth is positive,but after 2001,the effect is negative.②The lag effects of highway and marine＇s fixed capital are not obvious,but in the 2001—2008 period,but in 2001—2008,the effect of the lag five stage＇s highway and marine＇s capital stock on local region＇s economic converted from negative to positive.③The highway and marine＇s capital has notable positive spillovers from the overall view.The spatial spillover effect is related to the characteristics of the regional economic development from the sub-regional view.Other area＇s highway and marine＇s fixed capital stock has significant spatial spillover effect for the eastern region.Other area＇s highway and marine＇s fixed capital stock＇s spatial sillover effect changes from negative to positive for the central region,while for the western region,Other area＇s highway and marine＇s fixed capital stock＇s spatial spillover effect is positive before 1995,and not significant after 1995.To reduce regional disparities,the spatial correlation between transport infrastructure and economic growth should be thought in policy making process.