中国二氧化碳排放增长因素分析——基于SDA分解技术

An Analysis of the Increase of CO_2 Emission in China——Based on SDA Technique

本文构建了一个扩展的(进口)竞争型经济—能源—碳排放投入产出模型,采用双层嵌套结构式的结构分解分析(SDA)方法,从经济整体、分产业、工业分行业三个角度对1992—2007年我国二氧化碳排放增长进行了分解。分析结果表明,能源消费强度效应始终是碳减排最主要的因素,最终需求的规模扩张效应和投入产出系数变动效应是促使碳排放增加的主要因素,相比之下,进口替代效应和能源消费结构变动效应一直比较小;在规模扩张诸因素中,出口和投资扩张效应越来越显著,而消费扩张效应重要性程度下降。本文研究还发现,2002—2007年二氧化碳排放增长较前期明显加速,表明新一轮工业化呈现"高碳化"趋势。在整个研究期间,投入产出系数变动效应越来越大,在工业领域尤其是能源工业中情况更是如此,表明"粗放式"经济增长方式不但得以延续而且变本加厉。

This paper design an extension model of import-competition economy-energy-environment input-output system,using two-level nested method of Structural Decomposition Analysis to decompose 1992—2007 CO2 emission in China.The conclusions are as follows： The dominant factor to reduce CO2 emission is the effect of the change of energy consumption intensity;The main factors to increase CO2 emission are the effect of final demand expansion and the effect of the change of input-output coefficient;Whereas,the effect of the change of import substitution and the effect of the change of energy consumption structure are indistinctive.In the effect of final demand expansion,export-expansion and investment-expansion become more and more important,while consumption-expansion is less important one.The amount of CO2 emission increased rapidly in 2002—2007 reveals the characteristics of industrialization with high-carbon in the new stage.The effect of the change of input-output coefficient became greater and greater especially in the energy industry reveals that the tradition extensive-industrialization road still continue and maybe become worsen.