GDP增长与能源消耗的非线性门限——对中国传统产业省际转移的实证分析

A Nonlinear Threshold Model about GDP Growth and Energy Consumption——An Empirical Study on the Inter-provincial Transfer of Traditional Industries

本文构建了一个旨在说明GDP增长、能源消耗与传统产业省际转移相关联的非线性面板门限模型,在此基础上重点考察了GDP增长、能源消耗、废气排放量之间的非线性关系。通过对1991—2008年我国28个省份的面板数据的实证,发现GDP超过门限值的省份大多集中于我国的东部发达地区,中部次之,西部最少,并且当GDP总量超过一定的门限值,能源消耗所导致的废气排放就会越高,污染就会越严重。产生这一局面的根本原因在于长期以来我国的经济增长主要依靠高能耗的第二产业推动。笔者认为,在我国经济增长方式实现根本性转变之前,如果要同时完成持续的经济增长及节能减排的目标,那么GDP总量超门限值的地区的第二产业向GDP尚未达到门限值的中西部地区转移是一种较好的中短期路径安排。

Under the framework of the nonlinear threshold research,we build the panel data model of our country to analyze the relationship between the GDP growth,the energy consumption and the carbon emission in China＇s 28 different provinces from the year 1999 to 2008.The empirical result also shows when GDP volume passes a given threshold,the further development of traditional second industry will cause a big jump of carbon emission.We also suggest the traditional second industry in the east part of China,where the GDP volume has passed the given volume should transfer to the middle and west provinces with lower GDP volume.We think it a very good arrangement when we determine to fulfill the tasks of both economic development and lower level pollution.