可口可乐拟并购汇源案的竞争损害分析

An Economic Analysis of the Coca-Cola-Huiyuan Case

本文采用定量方法对可口可乐拟并购汇源案的竞争影响进行了初步分析。首先,本文利用中国软饮料4位数行业的产销数据,估计了碳酸饮料和果汁的需求函数,然后采用假定垄断者测试方法,界定了本案的相关市场,最后分别采用结构方法和并购模拟方法评估了本案的单边效应。研究结果显示,碳酸饮料和果汁分处两个相关市场,并且此案在果汁市场产生较为显著的单边效应。这个结果表明,尽管商务部否决此次并购的决定是合理的,但竞争损害并非来自似是而非的组合效应,而是果汁市场的单边效应。

This paper revisits the Coca-Cola/Huiyuan case using quantitative methods.We first estimate the demand system of carbonated soft drinks and juice using the 4-digit code data of the Chinese soft drink industry.We then define the relevant market by implementing the SSNIP test.Finally,we evaluate the unilateral effect in the juice market by structural method and merger simulation.Our results show that carbonated soft drinks and juice are in two separate relevant markets and,more importantly,there may be significant unilateral effect in the juice market based on scenario analysis.This result confirms the MOFCOM decision itself but meanwhile points out that the competition harm comes more from unilateral effect rather than the dubious portfolio effect.