GM(1,1)模型在日本落叶松生长预测中的应用

Application of Grey System Theory to Forecast Japanese Larch Growth

运用GM(1,l)模型对辽宁省日本落叶松的生长进行了预测,并进行了模型精度检验,利用所建模型对林龄为21年和22年的日本落叶松平均胸径和平均树高分别进行了预测检验。结果表明,林龄为21年的日本落叶松平均胸径和平均树高模拟值相对误差分别为2.40%和3.31%,林龄为22年的日本落叶松平均胸径和平均树高模拟值相对误差分别为3.69%和4.69%,均小于5%,表明模型预测精度较高,预测效果较好,可为日本落叶松林生长量的预测和经营水平的提高,提供科学的理论依据。

Based on grey system theory,the general GM（1,1）forecasting model for the growth of Japanese larch in Liaoning Province was set up and it has been proof-tested in model precision.Verified by use of the dates of the Japanese larch with age of 21 and 22,the results showed that it has been proved that the models were effective in practice.The Model-GM（1,1） on mean DBH comparative difference was 2.4%,3.69%,respectively.The Model-GM （1,1） on mean tree height comparative difference was 3.31%,4.69%,respectively.All of them were 1ess than 5%,which indicated that there were good results for estimation by forecasting.