基于中国农业CGE模型的农业补贴政策对粮食安全影响的研究

Impact of Agricultural Subsidies on Chinese Food Security Based on China Agricultural CGE Model

通过构建农业一般均衡模型(CGE),本研究分析了农业补贴增长条件下的粮食安全问题。模拟结果显示,农业补贴增长将降低CPI、GDP价格指数、出口价格指数、投资价格指数,从而带动资本、投资、真实GDP、土地租金增长,促进社会就业,带动名义工资、实际工资、家庭可支配收入增加,促进家庭消费和政府消费增加,整个宏观经济发展呈现良好态势。人民币真实贬值、出口增长、关税收入增加,贸易条件改善,国家宏观经济保持良好增长势头。因此,在保障粮食安全政策中,继续加大农业补贴政策的实施力度,提高农业补贴的实际效用,对国家粮食安全有重要意义。

By constructing China agricultural general equilibrium model （CGE）, this paper analyzed the food security issue under the assumption of growth in agricultural subsidies. The results showed that growth in agricultural subsidies would reduce price index of CPI, price index of GDP, price index of investment and price index of export, then stimulate capital, investment, real GDP growth, promote social employment and bring the increment of nominal wage, real wages, household disposable income, and motivate household consumption, government consumption. Real depreciation of RMB made export growth and tariff revenue increased, terms of trade was improved, national macroeconomic maintained good momentum of growth. Therefore, the intensity of agricultural subsidies must be continued to increase, and the real efficiency of agricultural subsidies should be improved, which is very important for national food security.