证券市场反应不足、反应过度和泡沫现象的系统思考

Under-reaction,Overreaction and Bubbles Phenomena in Securities Market

在对行为金融理论和实证检验结果进行重新分析的基础上,认为市场反应不足、反应过度和泡沫现象都是正反馈过度反应,只是程度、性质不同;"市场反应不足"是一次正反馈过度反应,反应过度是一系列同方向的正反馈过度反应,泡沫现象是一系列长时间正方向的巨大正反馈过度反应.正反馈过度反应普遍存在的主要原因是市场中正反馈交易者的广泛存在和"赚钱效应"的驱使.

On the basis of reanalyzing relevant behavioral finance theories and empirical study outcomes,this paper holds that under-reaction,overreaction and bubbles phenomena in securities market are all positive feedback overreactions,the differences among them are just that they have different degrees and properties respectively.Under-reaction is a positive feedback overreaction,overreaction is a series of positive feedback overreactions with the same direction,and bubbles phenomena are a series of tremendous positive feedback overreactions with long duration and positive direction.The primary reason that positive feedback overreactions exist widely is the widespread existence of positive feedback traders and the promotion of ＂Making Money Effect＂.